Table 2. Logistic regression results predicting the favorable plea bargaining and imprisonment outcomes (odds ratios are reported)

Variables	Plea bargaining								Sentencing
	Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4		Model 1		Model 2		Model 3		Model 4
Intercept	0.35***	(.06)	0.15***	(.16)	1.65	(.31)	1.39	(.18)	1.34***	(.06)	0.32***	(.14)	0.00***	(.33)	0.29***	(.19)
Demographics
Black	1.16*	(.07)	1.00	(.08)	1.00	(.08)	0.99	(.01)	1.67***	(.06)	0.88	(.07)	0.91	(.08)	1.00	(.01)
Latino	1.29***	(.07)	1.11	(.08)	1.11	(.08)	1.01	(.01)	1.48***	(.06)	0.94	(.08)	0.98	(.08)	1.01	(.01)
Asian	1.58***	(.14)	1.82***	(.15)	1.83***	(.15)	1.12***	(.03)	0.47***	(.14)	0.70*	(.15)	0.66**	(.16)	0.91**	(.03)
Gender			0.84**	(.06)	0.87*	(.06)	0.99	(.01)			2.13***	(.06)	1.86***	(.07)	1.12***	(.01)
Age <18			0.23***	(.1)	0.21***	(.1)	0.86***	(.02)			0.64***	(.08)	0.71***	(.09)	0.98	(.02)
Age 18−24			0.90	(.06)	0.90	(.06)	1.01	(.01)			0.98	(.06)	1.01	(.06)	1.01	(.01)
Age 35+			0.76***	(.05)	0.75***	(.05)	0.96***	(.01)			0.72***	(.06)	0.74***	(.06)	0.95***	(.01)
Instant offense
Class B drugs			3.68***	(.11)	3.75***	(.11)	1.19***	(.02)			0.82*	(.09)	0.83*	(.09)	1.01	(.02)
Class C violent robbery			18.62***	(.13)	21.65***	(.13)	1.50***	(.02)			2.20***	(.12)	1.56***	(.13)	1.06**	(.02)
Class D grand larceny			1.87***	(.14)	1.93***	(.14)	1.06**	(.02)			0.82	(.11)	0.77*	(.12)	0.97	(.02)
Class D burglary			1.78***	(.14)	1.83***	(.14)	1.06**	(.02)			1.42**	(.12)	1.26	(.13)	1.05*	(.02)
Class D violent assault			4.96***	(.13)	5.32***	(.13)	1.20***	(.02)			1.17	(.12)	0.94	(.12)	0.97	(.02)
Class D forgery			2.76***	(.13)	2.74***	(.13)	1.11***	(.02)			0.69***	(.12)	0.70**	(.12)	0.96	(.02)
Class C violent burglary			15.88***	(.13)	18.72***	(.14)	1.54***	(.02)			2.02***	(.14)	1.43*	(.15)	1.05*	(.02)
Class B violent robbery			21.81***	(.15)	27.47***	(.15)	1.51***	(.02)			3.33***	(.15)	1.89***	(.16)	1.08**	(.03)
Class D drugs			1.44**	(.17)	1.39*	(.17)	1.03	(.02)			0.54***	(.13)	0.62***	(.14)	0.96	(.02)
Class C violent weapons			13.05***	(.15)	16.37***	(.15)	1.38***	(.02)			4.12***	(.17)	2.29***	(.18)	1.16***	(.03)
Class D violent assault			13.27***	(.16)	17.76***	(.16)	1.41***	(.03)			5.44***	(.18)	2.69***	(.2)	1.15***	(.03)
Class E vehicular			1.18	(.19)	1.10	(.19)	1.00	(.03)			0.13***	(.16)	0.13***	(.16)	0.72***	(.03)
Class C violent assault			24.55***	(.16)	28.65***	(.16)	1.58***	(.02)			1.65***	(.15)	1.20	(.16)	1.03	(.03)
Class D weapons			6.89***	(.15)	6.88***	(.15)	1.24***	(.03)			0.78	(.16)	0.82	(.16)	0.97	(.03)
Class D identity theft			1.95***	(.18)	1.98***	(.18)	1.08**	(.03)			0.73*	(.16)	0.67*	(.16)	0.93*	(.03)
Class D robbery			2.29***	(.18)	2.46***	(.18)	1.09***	(.03)			1.20	(.16)	0.98	(.16)	1.00	(.03)
Other charges			2.76***	(.11)	2.96***	(.11)	1.11	(.01)			1.07	(.09)	0.82*	(.09)	0.98	(.02)
Criminal history
Felony convictions - 1			1.33***	(.07)	1.43***	(.07)	1.04***	(.01)			3.66***	(.07)	3.13***	(.07)	1.22***	(.01)
Felony convictions - 2			1.02	(.08)	1.12	(.09)	1.02	(.01)			4.30***	(.1)	3.32***	(.1)	1.23***	(.02)
Felony convictions - 3			1.10	(.1)	1.20	(.1)	1.02	(.02)			3.72***	(.11)	3.04***	(.12)	1.22***	(.02)
Felony convictions - 4			1.20	(.11)	1.35**	(.11)	1.05*	(.02)			4.53***	(.14)	3.34***	(.14)	1.23***	(.02)
Felony convictions - 5+			0.99	(.11)	1.13	(.11)	1.01	(.02)			8.10***	(.15)	5.79***	(.15)	1.26***	(.02)
Misdemeanor convictions 1−2			0.72***	(.06)	0.73***	(.06)	0.96***	(.01)			1.30***	(.06)	1.18**	(.06)	1.04***	(.01)
Misdemeanor convictions 3−4			0.63***	(.08)	0.63***	(.08)	0.96***	(.01)			1.62***	(.09)	1.41***	(.09)	1.06***	(.02)
Misdemeanor convictions 5−10			0.62***	(.08)	0.63***	(.08)	0.95***	(.01)			1.77***	(.08)	1.52***	(.08)	1.09***	(.01)
Misdemeanor convictions 11−20			0.61***	(.09)	0.61***	(.09)	0.96**	(.02)			2.25***	(.1)	1.88***	(.1)	1.11***	(.02)
Misdemeanor convictions 21+			0.78*	(.1)	0.77*	(.1)	0.99	(.02)			2.81***	(.12)	2.39***	(.13)	1.15***	(.02)
Violent convictions - 1			1.37***	(.07)	1.39***	(.07)	1.03**	(.01)			1.14	(.09)	1.15	(.09)	1.00	(.01)
Violent convictions – 2+			1.44***	(.1)	1.46***	(.1)	1.02	(.02)			1.09	(.14)	1.10	(.14)	1.00	(.02)
Bench warrants - 1			0.98	(.06)	0.99	(.06)	1.00	(.01)			1.45***	(.06)	1.35***	(.06)	1.05***	(.01)
Bench warrants - 2			1.09	(.07)	1.09	(.07)	1.01	(.01)			1.33***	(.08)	1.27**	(.08)	1.04***	(.01)
Bench warrants - 3			1.10	(.09)	1.12	(.09)	0.99	(.02)			1.47***	(.11)	1.38**	(.11)	1.03	(.02)
Bench warrants - 4			1.24	(.11)	1.27*	(.11)	1.02	(.02)			1.45**	(.14)	1.38*	(.14)	1.04	(.02)
Bench warrants – 5+			1.22*	(.09)	1.25*	(.09)	1.00	(.02)			1.64***	(.12)	1.52***	(.12)	1.05*	(.02)
Other factors
Pending case			0.93	(.05)	0.95	(.05)	0.99	(.01)			1.32***	(.05)	1.17**	(.05)	1.03**	(.01)
Domestic violence			1.49***	(.08)	1.51***	(.08)	1.07***	(.02)			0.84*	(.08)	0.79**	(.09)	0.92***	(.02)
Parole supervision			1.36***	(.07)	1.43***	(.07)	1.05***	(.01)			4.76***	(.15)	4.12***	(.16)	1.09***	(.01)
Crime driver			0.89	(.06)	0.92	(.06)	0.98*	(.01)			1.45***	(.07)	1.35***	(.07)	1.04**	(.01)
In ECAB			1.09	(.05)	1.03	(.05)	1.01	(.01)			0.92	(.05)	1.08	(.05)	1.00	(.01)
Defense atty - 18B			0.96	(.1)	0.92	(.1)	0.98	(.02)			1.48***	(.1)	1.64***	(.11)	1.11***	(.02)
Defense atty. - legal aid			0.93	(.09)	0.88	(.09)	0.99	(.02)			1.24*	(.09)	1.49***	(.09)	1.09***	(.02)
Defense atty. - other			0.95	(.09)	0.91	(.09)	0.99	(.02)			1.33**	(.09)	1.62***	(.1)	1.10***	(.02)
Bail request (logged)					0.78***	(.03)	0.97*	(.01)					1.75***	(.03)	1.13***	(.01)
Pretrial detention					0.99	(.06)	1.04*	(.02)					3.12***	(.06)	1.35	(.02)
Plea bargain													0.83***	(.05)	0.95*	(.01)
Accuracy	. 700		. 750		. 750		. 760		. 670		. 750		. 770		. 760
-2LL	–8,831		–7,663		–7,621		–7,590		–9,179		–7,065		–6,590		–5,431
N	14,601		14,601		14,601		14,601		14,531		14,531		14,531		14,531

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